I think millions and millions of people have the Corona Virus in the United States

[kidman232]

Hear me out.

This Virus has been in the states steady since Feb 15th if not alittle bit longer. All I have heard about the virus is how it is more contagious than the flu. 60-90 million Americans get the flu each year. You figure the flu is only prominant for around 6 months out of the year. Its safe to say 6 million+ people catch the flu each month on the low side and 10+ million catch it each month on the high side. This virus has been kicking around for 45+ days and only 300+k confirmed cases........ The actual answer is probably 15-20 million people have it. The vast majority show no signs of it. The reason I think this is over sooner rather than later is just the sheer volume of people who will have had this and recovered by the time mid may rolls around.

 

[michael777]

Agree,although it has been here since at least January

 

[exploited17]

Some professionals believe everyone will get it at some point. I mean if you truly believe it is as bad as some think.....you have to believe that. Most will not have a problem with it

 

[StevieRay]

Dec many doctors are saying was here.

 

[bodyforlife]

Well Kidman,

Based on the foremost expert touted by the media, Anthony Fauci, he claims the death rate is considerably less than 1% and more akin to the flu at .1%. But let's go with a range of 1% to .1%. He predicts a top range of 200k in deaths. That would mean that between 20 million and 200 million get infected based on his death rate. That's the math.

 

[mango]

Nothing like "gut feeling" over scientific data.

Doesn't even know first Coronavirus case in the US was Jan 20th.

 

[exploited17]

Nothing like "gut feeling" over scientific data.

Doesn't even know first Coronavirus case in the US was Jan 20th.

Confirmed case

 

[JackStraw77]

Several weeks ago my legs felt heavy for a couple of days. I didn't have a fever. I usually get that feeling when I have some kind of bacterial infection. Could it have been Corona. I don't know. I hope it was as it went away after a few days. I was using my gym actively then as it didn't close till the middle of the month.

 

[StevieRay]

Confirmed case

Yep

 

[bodyforlife]

I would also submit that if Fauci is right on the low range, a death rate of .1%, we have effectively shut down the economy for 320k deaths (assuming everyone in the United States get infected). Still worth it?

 

[Knightrofins]

I don’t doubt it. Factor in flu season as well.

now the problem is every time we sneeze, we get a little freaked out.

I think I’m up to 10 vitamins a day now (wife always makes me take more once January and flu season hits)

 

[mango]

When was the first unconfirmed case?

Exactly.

 

[bodyforlife]

Try not to let the moron deflect from a good conversation that Kidman has started.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Yes. Studies have been done. It’s real. Disagree with the last sentence though.

 

[Willie99]

Me too, I think most of us may have it, can't wait for extensive testing to be available

 

[festeringZit]

Well Kidman,

Based on the foremost expert touted by the media, Anthony Fauci, he claims the death rate is considerably less than 1% and more akin to the flu at .1%. But let's go with a range of 1% to .1%. He predicts a top range of 200k in deaths. That would mean that between 20 million and 200 million get infected based on his death rate. That's the math.

Fauci didn't exactly say that, his exact words:

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2



That was published in February. I don't think he's pushing those same figures now... My point is that he was saying "might" be, as they were in a "wait and find out" mode.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

 

[bodyforlife]

Fauci didn't exactly say that, his exact words:

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2



That was published in February. I don't think he's pushing those same figures now...

Not seeing the difference. Elaborate.

 

[festeringZit]

Not seeing the difference. Elaborate.

I edited the post to elaborate... "may be" vs. "(definitely) is"

 

[festeringZit]

Not seeing the difference. Elaborate.

I think in February when this was published, they still didn't know how this was going to turn out, and were trying to prognosticate, which
is why he said "this may be..." I don't think he's suggesting those numbers any more, since things have change drastically in the last 2 months.

 

[bodyforlife]

I edited the post to elaborate... "may be" vs. "(definitely) is"

Are you saying his range isn't somewhere between 1% and .1%?

You must have been replying while I sent this post (disregard above).

Well, he did recently say he estimated between 100k and 200k, so it's easy enough to calculate out how many people need to be infected once we get a fatality rate. But if what Kidman is saying is correct, and I think most of us agree he is, the hyperbole is through the roof on this thing.